Resumption: retail sales present third consecutive monthly rise
Comparison between the 2016 and 2017 data strengthens the belief that the crisis begins to lag behind
The positive impact on household income from inflation and indications that employment stopped falling contributed to a resumption of retail trade in June, according to the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) ). Restricted retail sales grew 1.2% compared to May, and retail sales, which include cars, motorcycles and construction materials, rose 2.5% over the same period.
It is the third consecutive monthly high, when you compare the data for 2016 and 2017, strengthening the belief that the crisis is falling behind. Compared to the same month last year, total retail sales increased 1.7% in April, 2.6% in May and 3% in June. The comparison between the first half of 2016 and 2017 is less favorable – there was a fall of 0.1% in the period. But the data almost equals stability, according to IBGE technicians.
The results of June were influenced by sales of furniture and household appliances, with a 12.7% increase, followed by textiles, clothing and footwear (+ 4.6%). The number of books, magazines and stationery, whose behavior was unfavorable, grew by 4.5%. The acquisition of nonessential goods indicates income recovery.
The decline of 0.4% in sales of hypermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco can be explained in part by purchase anticipations, given the decline in agricultural prices this year, due to the higher supply.
The behavior of the expanded trade (+ 4.4% between June 2016 and June 2017) was also very positive, driven by construction materials (+ 7%). In this case, they are signs of resumption of the acquisition of higher value items.
The improvement in June’s retail numbers was widespread, surpassing analysts’ expectations and just does not light a green light for the entire economy as the service area recovers more slowly. The National Confederation of Shopkeepers (CNDL) and SPC Brasil issued a statement stating that the data “do not show a total recovery of consumption”. But the Institute of Studies for Industrial Development (Iedi) speaks of a “clearer and more reliably” recovery. With due caution, the resumption of trade can be regarded as auspicious.
Source: MercadoeConsumo
